An exhaustive analysis and evaluation of fertility indicators in a society including many ethnic groups might provide valuable insights into any discrepancies. This study aims to systematically analyse the fertility rates over specific periods and investigate the differences in levels and patterns between local and expatriate women in Saudi Arabia using the existing data. This analysis used data from credible sources published by the General Authority for Statistics in the Saudi census 2022. The calculation of period fertility indicators started with the most straightforward rates and advanced to more complex ones, followed by a comprehensive description of the advantages and disadvantages of each. The aim was to ascertain fluctuations in fertility rates and analyse temporal patterns. Multiple studies consistently show that the fertility rate among expats in Saudi Arabia is lower than that among Saudi native women. However, the reason for this discrepancy still needs to be discovered since the definitive effect of contraceptive techniques has yet to be confirmed. Moreover, the reproductive trends that have occurred since the early 1980s will persist, although with additional precautions in place.
The rapid increase in the aging population has raised significant concerns about the living conditions and well-being of elderly residents in old communities. This study addresses these concerns by proposing a Sustainable Urban Renovation Assessment Model (SURAM) specifically designed to enhance elderly-friendly environments in Chongqing City. The model encompasses multiple dimensions, including the comfort of public facilities, service safety and convenience, medical travel services, infrastructure security, life service convenience, neighbor relations, ambulance aid accessibility, commercial service facilities, privacy protection, elderly care facilities and service supply, and medical and health facilities. By employing factor analysis, the study reduces the dimensionality of the 49 indicator factors, allowing for a more focused and comprehensive evaluation of the effectiveness of aging-friendly renovation efforts. The main factors identified in the proposed model include community infrastructure security, elderly comfort of community public facilities, completeness and convenience of surrounding living services, and security and convenience of elderly care services. The results reveal that the age-appropriate comfort of public facilities plays a significant role in achieving successful aging-appropriate renovation outcomes. The findings demonstrate that by addressing specific needs such as safety, accessibility, and convenience, communities can significantly improve the quality of life for elderly residents. Moreover, the application of SURAM provides actionable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and community stakeholders, guiding them in implementing targeted initiatives for sustainable and inclusive urban development.
This study investigates seismic risk and potential impacts of future earthquakes in the Sunda Strait region, known for its susceptibility to significant seismic events due to the subduction of the Indo-Australian Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate. The aim is to assess the likelihood of major earthquakes, estimate their impact, and propose strategies to mitigate associated risks. The research uses historical seismic data and probabilistic models to forecast earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 6.0 to 8.2 Mw. The Gutenberg-Richter model helps project potential earthquake occurrences and their impacts. The findings suggest that the probability of a major earthquake could occur as early as 2026–2027, with a more significant event estimated to likely occur around 2031. Economic estimates for a 7.8–8.2 Mw earthquake suggest potential damage of up to USD 1.255 billion with significant loss of life. The study identifies key vulnerabilities, such as inadequate building foundations and ineffective disaster management infrastructure, which could worsen the impact of future seismic events. In conclusion, the research highlights the urgent need for comprehensive seismic risk mitigation strategies. Recommendations include reinforcing infrastructure to comply with seismic standards, implementing advanced early warning systems, and enhancing public education on earthquake preparedness. Additionally, government policies must address these issues by increasing funding for disaster management, enforcing building regulations, and incorporating traditional knowledge into construction practices. These measures are essential to reducing future earthquake impacts and improving community resilience.
Increasing number of smart cities, the rise of technology and urban population engagement in urban management, and the scarcity of open data for evaluating sustainable urban development determines the necessity of developing new sustainability assessment approaches. This study uses passive crowdsourcing together with the adapted SULPiTER (Sustainable Urban Logistics Planning to Enhance Regional freight transport) methodology to assess the sustainable development of smart cities. The proposed methodology considers economic, environmental, social, transport, communication factors and residents’ satisfaction with the urban environment. The SULPiTER relies on experts in selection of relevant factors and determining their contribution to the value of a sustainability indicator. We propose an alternative approach based on automated data gathering and processing. To implement it, we build an information service around a formal knowledge base that accumulates alternative workflows for estimation of indicators and allows for automatic comparison of alternatives and aggregation of their results. A system architecture was proposed and implemented with the Astana Opinion Mining service as its part that can be adjusted to collect opinions in various impact areas. The findings hold value for early identification of problems, and increasing planning and policies efficiency in sustainable urban development.
This study introduces a novel Groundwater Flooding Risk Assessment (GFRA) model to evaluate risks associated with groundwater flooding (GF), a globally significant hazard often overshadowed by surface water flooding. GFRA utilizes a conditional probability function considering critical factors, including topography, ground slope, and land use-recharge to generate a risk assessment map. Additionally, the study evaluates the return period of GF events (GFRP) by fitting annual maxima of groundwater levels to probability distribution functions (PDFs). Approximately 57% of the pilot area falls within high and critical GF risk categories, encompassing residential and recreational areas. Urban sectors in the north and east, containing private buildings, public centers, and industrial structures, exhibit high risk, while developing areas and agricultural lands show low to moderate risk. This serves as an early warning for urban development policies. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution effectively captures groundwater level fluctuations. According to the GFRP model, about 21% of the area, predominantly in the city's northeast, has over 50% probability of GF exceedance (1 to 2-year return period). Urban outskirts show higher return values (> 10 years). The model's predictions align with recorded flood events (90% correspondence). This approach offers valuable insights into GF threats for vulnerable locations and aids proactive planning and management to enhance urban resilience and sustainability.
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