Air cargo transport and economic development in emerging economies: A case study of Brazil with panel data analysis

Rafel Caixeta; Elton Fernandes; Manoela Cabo; Vicente Aprigliano Fernandes; Carla F. de Mello Carvalho; Rodrigo V. Ventura

doi:10.24294/jipd.v8i12.8296

Home - JIPD - Volume 8 - Issue 12

Submit to JIPD

Journal Browser

Volume | Year

Issue

• Current lssue

View All

News and Announcements

View All

Air cargo transport and economic development in emerging economies: A case study of Brazil with panel data analysis

Rafel Caixeta

Elton Fernandes

Manoela Cabo

Vicente Aprigliano Fernandes

Carla F. de Mello Carvalho

Rodrigo V. Ventura

Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development 2024, 8(12), 8296; https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i12.8296

Submitted：30 Jul 2024

Accepted：19 Sept 2024

Published：01 Nov 2024

Download PDF(1.07M)

Cite

XML

Abstract

Air cargo transportation accounts for less than 1% of the global trade volume, yet it represents approximately 35% of the total value of goods transported, highlighting its strategic importance in trade and economic development. This study investigates the relationship between domestic air cargo transport in Brazil and key macroeconomic variables, focusing on how regional economic dynamism, logistical infrastructure, and population density impact the country’s development. Using a panel data regression model covering the period from 2000 to 2020, the study analyzes the evolution of air cargo transportation and its role in redistributing economic growth across Brazil’s regions. The findings emphasize the key factors influencing the air cargo sector and demonstrate how these factors can be leveraged to optimize public policies and business strategies. This research provides valuable insights into the relevance of air cargo transportation for regional and national development, particularly in emerging economies like Brazil, offering guidance for the formulation of strategies that promote balanced economic growth across regions.

Keywords

References

ANAC. (2022). National Civil Aviation Agency of Brazil. Available online: http://www.anac.gov.br/assuntos/dados-e-estatisticas/microdados-de-tarifas-aereas-comercializadas (accessed on 02 June 2024).

Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. John Wiley and Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118725293

Bilotkach, V. (2015). Are Airports Engines of Economic Development? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Urban Studies, 52(9), 1577–1593. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098015576869

Boeing. (2022). World Air Cargo Forecast 2020–2039. Available online: https://www.boeing.com/resources/ boeingdotcom/market/assets/downloads/Boeing_World_Air_Cargo_Forecast_2022.pdf (accessed on 15 July 2024).

Button, K. J., Yuan, J., Doh, S. (2010). The role of small airports in economic development. Airport Management, 4(2), 1–12.

Button, K., Yuan, J. (2013). Airfreight transport and economic development: An examination of causality. Urban Studies, 50(2), 329–340. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098012446999

Carbo, J. M.; Graham, D. J. (2020). Quantifying the Impacts of Air Transportation on Economic Productivity: A Quasi-Experimental Causal Analysis. Economics of Transportation, 24, 100195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecotra.2020.100195

Chang, Y.-H., Yeh, C.-H., Wang, S.-Y. (2007). A survey and optimization-based evaluation of development strategies for the air cargo industry. International Journal of Production Economics, 106(2), 550–562. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2006.06.016

Chen, C.-H., Chou, J.-H. (2017). Multiobjective optimization of airline crew roster recovery problems under disruption conditions, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man. Cybern, 47(1), 133–144. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMC.2016.2560130

Fernandes, A. V., Pacheco, R. R.; Fernandes, E., et al. (2021). Air Transportation, Economy and Causality: Remote Towns in Brazil’s Amazon Region. Sustainability, 13, 627. https://do i.org/ 10.3390/su13020627

Fernandes, E., Pacheco, R. R., Guedes, E. P., Aprigliano, V. (2024). Regular domestic air passenger market dynamics: The Brazilian case. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(6), 4908. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i6.4908

Fung, M. K. Y, Law, J. S., Ng, L. W. K. (2006). Economic Contribution to Hong Kong of the Aviation Sector: A Value-Added Approach, Chinese Economy. Taylor and Francis Journals, 39(6), 19–38. https://doi.org/10.2753/CES1097-1475390602

Góes, C., Garcia-Escribano, M., Karpowicz, I. (2018). Filling the Gap: Infrastructure Investment in Brazil. Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development, 4(1), 100–123. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v4i1.1234

IATA. (2024a). Air cargo capacity crunch: demand plummets but capacity disappears even faster, 2020. Available online: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-06-02-01/ (accessed on 20 July 2024).

IATA. (2024b). IATA Cargo Strategy, International Air Transport Association, 2021. Available online: https://www.iata.org/en/programs/cargo/ (accessed on 20 July 2024).

IBGE. (2022). Estimates of the resident population for municipalities and federative units (Portuguese). Available online: https://censo2022.ibge.gov.br/panorama/(accessed on 20 June 2023).

IBGE. (2023a). Annual Trade Survey: Gross resale revenue by marketing methods (Portuguese). Available online: https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/economicas/comercio/9075-pesquisa-anual-de-comercio.html?=&t=resultados (accessed on 15 March 2023).

IBGE. (2023b). Monthly Industrial Survey-Physical Production: Seasonally adjusted index number (Portuguese). Available online: https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/home/pimpfbr (accessed on 01 March 2023).

IBGE. (2023c). Monthly Survey of Services: Seasonally adjusted index number (Portuguese). Available online: https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/home/pms (accessed on 01 March 2023).

IBGE. (2023d). Continuous National Household Sample Survey: Per Capita Household Income (Portuguese). Available online: https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/home/pnadct (accessed on 01 March 2023).

IBGE. (2023f). Sistema de Contas Nacionais Brasil: 2022. Available online: https://www.ibge.gov.br/explica/pib.php (accessed on 20 June 2023).

IMF. (2019). World Economic Outlook: Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers. IMF.

Kasarda, J. D., Green, J. D. (2005). Air cargo as an economic development engine: A note on opportunities and constraints. Journal of Air Transport Management, 11, 459–462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2005.06.002

Kim, J. H., Choi, I. (2021). Choosing the Level of Significance: A Decision-theoretic Approach. Abacus, 57, 27–71. https://doi.org/10.1111/abac.12172vv

Kupfer, F, Meersman, H., Onghena, E., Van de Voorde, E. (2017). The underlying drivers and future develop-ment of air cargo. Journal Air Transport Management, 61, 6–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016. 07.002

Lakew, P. A. (2015). Airport traffic and metropolitan economies: Determinants of passenger and cargo traffic. Transportation Research Record: Journal the Transportation Research Board, 2471,58–72.

Livres. (2004). Longitudinal and Panel Data: Analysis and Applications in Social Sciences (Portuguese). Cambridge University Press.

Mukkala, K., Tervo, H. (2013). Air Transportation and Regional Growth: Which Way Does the Causality Run? Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 45, 1508–1520. https://doi.org/10.1068/a45298

Sheard, N. (2019). Airport Size and Urban Growth. Economica, 86, 300–335.

Twisk, J. W. (2013). Applied longitudinal data analysis for epidemiology: a practical guide. Cambridge University Press.

Ventura, R. V., Cabo, M., Caixeta, R., et al. (2022). Consumer behaviour analysis based on income and price elasticities: The case of the air transportation in Brazil. Case Studies on Transport Policy.

Wang, F.; Zhuo, X.; Niu, B. (2017). Strategic entry to regional air cargo market under joint competition of demand and promised delivery time. Transportation Research Part B Methodological, 104, 317–336. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2017.08.002

Wei, K., Vaze, V. (2018). Modeling crew itineraries and delays in the national air transportation system. Transportation Science, 52, (5), 1035–1296. https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2018.0834

Previous
article in this issue

Next
article in this issue