Achieving successful gas plant construction: A risk modelling framework with quantitative risk-based approach to schedule management

Wisnu Isvara; Mohammad Ichsan; Dedi Hermawan

doi:10.24294/jipd.v8i12.9260

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Achieving successful gas plant construction: A risk modelling framework with quantitative risk-based approach to schedule management

Wisnu Isvara

Mohammad Ichsan

Dedi Hermawan

Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development 2024, 8(12), 9260; https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i12.9260

Submitted：23 Sept 2024

Accepted：06 Oct 2024

Published：04 Nov 2024

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Abstract

The construction of gas plants often experiences delays caused by various factors, which can lead to significant financial and operational losses. This research aims to develop an accurate risk model to improve the schedule performance of gas plant projects. The model uses Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation methods to identify and measure the risks that most significantly impact project schedule performance. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify the risk variables that may cause delays. The risk model, pre-simulation modeling, result analysis, and expert validation were all developed using a Focused Group Discussion (FGD). Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA) software was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The simulation output provides information on probability distribution, histograms, descriptive statistics, sensitivity analysis, and graphical results that aid in better understanding and decision-making regarding project risks. The research results show that the simulated project completion timeline after mitigation suggested an acceleration of 61–65 days compared to the findings of the baseline simulation. This demonstrates that activity-based mitigation has a major influence on improving schedule performance. This research makes a significant contribution to addressing project delay issues by introducing an innovative and effective risk model. The model empowers project teams to proactively identify, measure, and mitigate risks, thereby improving project schedule performance and delivering more successful projects.

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References

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