This study aims to identify the risk factors causing the delay in the completion schedule and to determine an optimization strategy for more accurate completion schedule prediction. A validated questionnaire has been used to calculate a risk rating using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method, and a Monte Carlo simulation on @RISK 8.2 software was employed to obtain a more accurate prediction of project completion schedules. The study revealed that the dominant risk factors causing project delays are coordination with stakeholders and changes in the scope of work/design review. In addition, the project completion date was determined with a confidence level of 95%. All data used in this study were obtained directly from the case study of the Double-Double Track Development Project (Package A). The key result of this study is the optimization of a risk-based schedule forecast with a 95% confidence level, applicable directly to the scheduling of the Double-Double Track Development Project (Package A). This paper demonstrates the application of Monte Carlo Simulation using @RISK 8.2 software as a project management tool for predicting risk-based-project completion schedules.

The construction of gas plants often experiences delays caused by various factors, which can lead to significant financial and operational losses. This research aims to develop an accurate risk model to improve the schedule performance of gas plant projects. The model uses Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation methods to identify and measure the risks that most significantly impact project schedule performance. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify the risk variables that may cause delays. The risk model, pre-simulation modeling, result analysis, and expert validation were all developed using a Focused Group Discussion (FGD). Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA) software was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The simulation output provides information on probability distribution, histograms, descriptive statistics, sensitivity analysis, and graphical results that aid in better understanding and decision-making regarding project risks. The research results show that the simulated project completion timeline after mitigation suggested an acceleration of 61–65 days compared to the findings of the baseline simulation. This demonstrates that activity-based mitigation has a major influence on improving schedule performance. This research makes a significant contribution to addressing project delay issues by introducing an innovative and effective risk model. The model empowers project teams to proactively identify, measure, and mitigate risks, thereby improving project schedule performance and delivering more successful projects.

This study aims to underscore the relevance of pre-existing resilience experiences within communities affected by socio-political violence in Colombia, particularly in the context of developing effective risk management practices and enriching the CBDM model. This research employs a qualitative design, incorporating a multiple case study approach, which integrates a comprehensive literature review, in-depth interviews, and focus groups conducted in two Colombian communities, namely Salgar and La Primavera. The community of La Primavera effectively harnessed community empowerment and social support practices to confront socio-political violence, which evolved into a form of social capital that could be leveraged to address disaster risks. Conversely, in Salgar, individual and familial coping strategies took precedence. It is concluded that bolstering citizen participation in disaster risk management in both communities and governmental support for community projects aimed at reducing vulnerability is imperative. This study reveals that capabilities developed through coping with the humanitarian consequences of armed conflict, such as community empowerment and practices of solidarity and social support, can enhance community resilience in the face of disasters.

QR code transforms the way retailers offer their shopping experiences in the current context. In response, various retailers adopted innovative approaches such as QR code-based applications to attract their consumers. A QR code-based virtual supermarket refers to a space where goods or services are traded in a virtual space using a smart app-based QR code. To fully understand the opportunities of this type of supermarket applying QR-code technology, initial research is required to assess consumers’ use intention. This study has examined the antecedents of the adoption of QR code-based virtual supermarket among Vietnam consumers using the expanded Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and explored the moderating effect of perceived risk on the relationship between attitude and consumers’ intention to use QR code-based virtual supermarket. A questionnaire was used to collect data from a sample of 335 consumers in Vietnam. The findings revealed that the antecedents are effective in predicting consumers’ attitudes and intentions toward QR code-based virtual supermarket adoption. The results showed the negative moderation effects of perceived risk for the effect of attitude on consumers intention. In addition, practical implications are supported for the application of new shopping technology and are likely to stimulate further research in the area of virtual supermarket shopping.

Fire hazard is often mapped as a static conditional probability of fire characteristics’ occurrence. We developed a dynamic product for operational risk management to forecast the probability of occurrence of fire radiative power in the locally possible near-maximum fire intensity range. We applied standard machine learning techniques to remotely sensed data. We used a block maxima approach to sample the most extreme fire radiative power (FRP) MODIS retrievals in free-burning fuels for each fire season between 2001 and 2020 and associated weather, fuel, and topography features in northwestern south America. We used the random forest algorithm for both classification and regression, implementing the backward stepwise repression procedure. We solved the classification problem predicting the probability of occurrence of near-maximum wildfire intensity with 75% recall out-of-sample in ten annual test sets running time series cross validation, and 77% recall and 85% ROC-AUC out-of-sample in a twenty-fold cross-validation to gauge a realistic expectation of model performance in production. We solved the regression problem predicting FRP with 86% r² in-sample, but out-of-sample performance was unsatisfactory. Our model predicts well fatal and near-fatal incidents reported in Peru and Colombia out-of-sample in mountainous areas and unimodal fire regimes, the signal decays in bimodal fire regimes.

Projects implemented under life cycle contracts have become increasingly common in recent years to ensure the quality of construction and maintenance of energy infrastructure facilities. A key parameter for energy facility construction projects implemented under life cycle contracts is their duration and deadlines. Therefore, the systematic identification, monitoring, and comprehensive assessment of risks affecting the timing of work on the design and construction is an urgent practical task. The purpose of this work is to study the strength of the influence of various risks on the duration of a project implemented on the terms of a life cycle contract. The use of the expert assessment method allows for identifying the most likely risks for the design and construction phases, as well as determining the ranges of deviations from the baseline indicator. Using the obtained expert evaluations, a model reflecting the range and the most probable duration of the design and construction works under the influence of risk events was built by the Monte-Carlo statistical method. The results obtained allow monitoring and promptly detecting deviations in the actual duration of work from the basic deadlines set in the life cycle contract. This will give an opportunity to accurately respond to emerging risks and build a mutually beneficial relationship between the parties to life cycle contracts.