Catastrophes, like earthquakes, bring sudden and severe damage, causing fatalities, injuries, and property loss. This often triggers a rapid increase in insurance claims. These claims can encompass various types, such as life insurance claims for deaths, health insurance claims for injuries, and general insurance claims for property damage. For insurers offering multiple types of coverage, this surge in claims can pose a risk of financial losses or bankruptcy. One option for insurers is to transfer some of these risks to reinsurance companies. Reinsurance companies will assess the potential losses due to a catastrophe event, then issue catastrophe reinsurance contracts to insurance companies. This study aims to construct a valuation model for catastrophe reinsurance contracts that can cover claim losses arising from two types of insurance products. Valuation in this study is done using the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing, which is the expected present value of the number of claims that occur during the reinsurance coverage period. The number of catastrophe events during the reinsurance coverage period is assumed to follow a Poisson process. Each impact of a catastrophe event, such as the number of fatalities and injuries that cause claims, is represented as random variables, and modeled using Peaks Over Threshold (POT). This study uses Clayton, Gumbel, and Frank copulas to describe various dependence characteristics between random variables. The parameters of the POT model and copula are estimated using Inference Functions for Margins method. After estimating the model parameters, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain numerical solutions for the expected value of catastrophe reinsurance based on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing. The expected reinsurance value based on Monte Carlo simulations using Indonesian earthquake data from 1979–2021 is Rp 10,296,819,838.
African air transport is expected to take off after the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) launch in January 2018. Unfortunately, this seems not to be the case, particularly in West Africa, where adequate direct local flight is highly difficult to find. Hence, the fundamental question is: what levers should be activated for an effective revival of this sector? This paper aims to analyze West African air transport competitiveness factors by collecting data physically through surveys in various West African airports (Abidjan, Cotonou, Accra, Lome) also by interviewing professionals in the sector (Air traffic controllers, Air Navigation Service Providers, Air transports Managers, etc.) and among others, SAATM reports to appreciate its implementation. We were able to survey 435 actors (individuals and key informants) from January to July 2023 to evaluate quality of service, airline performance, safety, customer satisfaction etc. Airline operating costs were analyzed to understand the associated bottlenecks. The results show that SAATM is not yet well implemented in all contracting states, travelers are not satisfied with the air supply (airlines, infrastructure and fares) and taxation excessively increases ticket prices. The main factors for West African air transport take-off are liberalization, taxation and infrastructure investments.
Communication is considered to be significant to universities: provide students updated information to make appropriate choices and decisions during their learning process; and promptly feedback to contribute to building a better educational and training environment; improve institutional governance efficiency. Communication tools used in universities are diverse in forms and contents. This study focuses on two popular forms, which are policy communication (communication of policies and laws on higher education) and internal communication (communication about professional activities and community activities of the university). The theoretical framework has been developed and a survey was conducted to collect opinions of 450 students from many universities representing 3 regions of Vietnam, including: Vietnam National University, Hanoi (VNU) (Northern region); The University of Danang (UD) (Central region); Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City (VNU-HCM) (Southern region). The results show that the policy communications of these universities are not effectively implemented. The findings suggest innovations for managers to improve communication effectiveness and governance efficiency in these higher education institutions.
Climate change is the most important environmental problem of the 21st century. Severe climate changes are caused by changes in the average temperature and rainfall can affect economic sectors. On the other hand, the impact of climate change on countries varies depending on their level of development. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between climate changes and economic sectors in developed and developing countries for the period 1990–2021. For this purpose, a novel approach based on wavelet analysis and SUR model has been used. In this case, first all variables are decomposed into different frequencies (short, medium and long terms) using wavelet decomposition and then a SUR model is applied for the examination of climate change effects on agriculture, industry and services sectors in developed and developing countries. The findings indicate that temperature and rainfall have a significant negative and positive relationship with the agriculture, industry and services sectors in developed and developing countries, respectively. But severity of the negative effects is greater in the agricultural and industrial sectors in all frequencies (short, medium and long terms) compared to service sector. Furthermore, the severity of the positive effects is greater in the agricultural sector in all frequencies of developing countries compared to the industrial and services sectors. Finally, developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change in all sectors compared to developed countries.
A state of emergency allows authorities to exercise special powers, including the temporary suspension of regular legal provisions and human rights standards. This scenario engenders a conflict between extraordinary powers and the foundational principles of the rule of law. This paper investigates one of the most contentious legal dilemmas concerning emergency powers: whether these powers must be exercised within the bounds of legal constraints. This paper also explores whether ordinary principles of legality apply in situations involving emergency powers. This study aims to examine how this tension is approached from different perspectives. It focuses on discussing the challenges for the rule of law in the state of emergency. It also studies Vietnam’s approach to addressing these challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This study aims to identify the risk factors causing the delay in the completion schedule and to determine an optimization strategy for more accurate completion schedule prediction. A validated questionnaire has been used to calculate a risk rating using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method, and a Monte Carlo simulation on @RISK 8.2 software was employed to obtain a more accurate prediction of project completion schedules. The study revealed that the dominant risk factors causing project delays are coordination with stakeholders and changes in the scope of work/design review. In addition, the project completion date was determined with a confidence level of 95%. All data used in this study were obtained directly from the case study of the Double-Double Track Development Project (Package A). The key result of this study is the optimization of a risk-based schedule forecast with a 95% confidence level, applicable directly to the scheduling of the Double-Double Track Development Project (Package A). This paper demonstrates the application of Monte Carlo Simulation using @RISK 8.2 software as a project management tool for predicting risk-based-project completion schedules.
Copyright © by EnPress Publisher. All rights reserved.