The Sub-Saharan African Economic Burden of Violent Armed Conflict

Michael Ogbe ,Yibing Ding

doi:10.24294/jipd8113

Home - JIPD - Volume 9 - Issue 4

Submit to JIPD

Journal Browser

Volume | Year

Issue

• Current lssue

View All

News and Announcements

View All

The Sub-Saharan African Economic Burden of Violent Armed Conflict

Michael Ogbe

Yibing Ding

Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development 2025, 9(4); https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd8113

Submitted：21 Jul 2024

Accepted：21 Aug 2024

Published：21 Jul 2024

XML

Abstract

This research examines data from 1989 to 2022 across 48 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using a novel panel data regression approach to uncover how conflict undermines economic stability. The study identifies the destruction of infrastructure, disruption of human capital development, and deterrence of investment as primary channels through which conflict negatively impacts economies. These findings support the hypothesis that armed conflict severely hampers economic performance in SSA, highlighting the urgency for effective conflict resolution strategies and robust institutional frameworks. The negative impacts extend beyond immediate losses, altering income growth trajectories and perpetuating poverty long after hostilities cease. Regional spillover effects emphasize the interconnectedness of SSA economies, where conflict in one country affects its neighbors. The research provides innovative insights by disaggregating impact pathways and employing a robust methodology, revealing the complexity of conflict's economic consequences. It underscores the need for comprehensive policy interventions to foster resilience and sustainable development in conflict-prone regions. While there is evidence of potential post-conflict growth, the overall net effect of armed conflict remains profoundly negative, diminishing economic prospects. Future research should focus on strengthening long-term resilience mechanisms and policy measures to enhance the peace dividend. Addressing the root causes of conflict and investing in peace-building efforts are essential for transforming SSA's economic landscape and ensuring sustainable growth and development.

Keywords

References

World Bank. (2024). Получено 28 April 2024 г., из The World Bank in Africa: https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/overview

Agbor, M. N., Etta, M. A., & Mbua, H. (2022). Effects of armed conflicts on teaching and learning: Perspectives of secondary school teachers in Cameroon. Journal of Education, 2022(86), 164–25 http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/2520-9868/i86a09 .

Ake, C. (1974). Modernization and political instability: A theoretical exploration. World Politics, 26 (3): 576–591. https://doi.org/10.2307/2010102.

Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Ozca, S., & Sayek, S. (2004). FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets. Journal of international economics, 89-112 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1996(03)00081-3.

Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2008). Mostly Harmless Econometrics. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvcm4j72.

Artadi, E. V., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2003). The Economic Tragedy of the Xxth Century: Growth in Africa. Cambridge, MA: NBER, NBER Working Paper No. 9865, http://www.nber.org/papers/w9865.

Asiedu, E. (2006). Foreign direct investment in Africa: The role of natural resources, market size, government policy, institutions and political instability. The World Economy, 29(1): 63–77.

Aziz, N., & Asadullah, M. N. (2017). Military spending, armed conflict and economic growth in developing countries in the post-Cold War era. Journal of Economic Studies, 44(1), pp.47-68 https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-01-2015-0021.

Babajide, A. (2018). . Conflict and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. (Doctoral dissertation, Loughborough University).

Blattman, C., & Miguel, E. (2010). Civil war. Journal of Economic Literature, 48(1), 3–57 DOI: 10.1257/jel.48.1.3.

Blomberg, B., & Hess, G. (2002). The Temporal Links between Conflict and Economic Activity. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, pp. 74-90 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002702046001005.

Blomberg, B., Hess, G., & Orphanides, A. (2004). The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51 (5) DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.04.001.

Brazys, S., de Soysa, I., & Vadlamannati, K. C. (2023). Blessing or curse? Assessing the local impacts of foreign direct investment on conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 1-17 https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231200928.

Cerra, V., & Saxena, S. C. (2008). Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery. American Economic Review, 98(1), 439-57 DOI:10.1257/aer.98.1.439.

Clemens, M. A. (2011). The economic cost of conflict: A review of the empirical literature. Journal of Economic Surveys, 25(2), 307-337.

Collier, P. (2007). The Bottom Billion. Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (2004). Aid, Policy and Growth in Post-Conflict Countries. The European Economic Review, 48, 1125-1145 DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2003.11.005.

Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (2004). Greed and grievance in civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, 56(4): 563-595. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064.

Collier, P., Elliot, L., Hegre, H., & Hoeffler, A. (2003). Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy. Oxford DOI:10.1596/978-0-8213-5481-0: Oxford University Press.

Crippa, L., & Saaverdra-Lux, L. (2023). Double-edged sword: understanding the localized effect of foreign direct investment inflow in conflict settings. doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/: United Nations University World Institute for Development.

de Soysa, I. (2020). Does foreign direct investment encourage state militarization and societal security? An empirical test, 1980–2017. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 26(1) 2019-0011 DOI: 10.1515/peps-2019-0011.

Deger, S. (1986). Economic Development and Defense Expenditure, Economic Development and Cultural Change. University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 179-196, October, vol. 35(1), pages 179-196, October http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/451577.

Dunn, J., Smith, P. R., & Willenbockel, D. (2005). Models of Military Expenditure and Growth: A Critical Review. Defence and Peace Economics, 16(6), 449-461 https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500167791.

Dunne, J., & Tian, N. (2015). Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity. Defense and Peace Economics, 26(1), 15-31 DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.848575.

Dunne, P. J., & Tian, N, N. (2013). Military expenditure and economic growth: A survey. The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 8(1) DOI: https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.8.1.5.

Dunne, P. J., Perlo-Freeman, and A. Soydan, S., & Soydan, A. (2004). Military Expenditure and Debt in Small Industrialized Economies: A Panel Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 125-132. DOI:10.1080/1024269032000110504.

Fang, X., Kothari, S., McLoughlin, C., & Yenice, M. (2020). The Economic Consequences of Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Monetary Fund (IMF) DOI:10.5089/9781513559667.001.

Fearon, J., & Laitin, D. (2003). Ethnicity, Insurgency, and CivilWar. American Political Science Review, 97(1), 75–90 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534.

Frounfelker, R. L., Islam, N., Falcone, J., Farrar, J., Ra, C., Antonaccio, C. M., и др. (2020). Living through war: Mental health of children and youth in conflict-affected areas. International Review of the Red Cross, 101(911), 481–506 doi:10.1017/S181638312000017X.

Greene, W. (2012). Econometric Analysis 7th Edition. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle Rive.

Gyimah-Brempong, K., & Corley, M. (2005). Civil War and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Economies, 280 doi:10.1093/jae/eji004.

Harms, P., & Zink, S. (2005). Growing into and out of social conflict. Economica, 267-286 DOI:10.1111/j.0013-0427.2005.00414.x.

Hegre, H., Nygård,, H. M., & Ræder, R. F. (2017). Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap: A dynamic simulation approach. Journal of Peace Research, 54(2): 243–61 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316684917.

Horowitz, J. L. (2001). BOOTSTRAP METHODS IN ECONOMETRICS Heckman and E. Leamer, eds., Handbook of. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, B.V,.

Humpreys, M. (2005). Natural Resources. Conflict, and Conflict Resolution: Uncovering the Mechanism. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 508-537 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002705277545.

Jayne, T. S., Fox, L., Fuglie, K., & Adelaja, A. (2021). Agricultural productivity growth, resilience, and economic transformation in sub-Saharan Africa. Association of Public and Land-grant Universities (APLU).

Kim, N., & Conceição, P. (2009). The Economic Crisis, Violent Conflict, and Human Development. International Journal of Peace Studies, 15 DOI:10.2307/41852999.

Kishi, R., Maggio, G., & Raleigh, C. (2017). Foreign Investment and State Conflicts in Africa. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, Vol. 23 (Issue 3), pages 1-22 DOI:10.1515/peps-2017-0007.

Luckham, R., Ahmed, I., Muggah, R., & White, S. (2001). Conflict and poverty in sub-Saharan Africa: an assessment of the issues and evidence.

Mayai, A. T. (2022). War and Schooling in South Sudan, 2013-2016. Journal on Education in Emergencies, 8(1), 14–49 . https://doi.org/10.33682/q16e-7ckp.

Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., & Sergenti, E. (2004). Economic shocks and civil conflict: An instrumental variables approach. Journal of Political Economy, 725-753 http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/421174 .

Pieroni, L. (2009). Military expenditure and economic growth. Defence and Peace Economics, 20(4), 327-339. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690701589876.

Rahman, T., & Siddiqui, D. A. (2019). he effect of military spending on economic growth in the presence of arms trade: A global analysis. Available at SSRN 3401331.

Sambanis, N. (2001). Do Ethnic and Non-ethnic Civil Wars have the same Causes? A theoretical and Empirical Enquiry (Part 1). Journal of Conflict Resolution, 259-282 DOI:10.1177/0022002701045003001.

Singh, B., Kaur, J., Sen, R. K., Singh, B., & Chattu, V. K. (2021). The Double Whammy of Pandemic and War: A Systematic Review of India’s Education Diplomacy to Address Educational Inequities in Afghanistan. Education Sciences, 11(651), 1–12 DOI:10.3390/educsci11100651.

Ullah, S., Akhtar, P. A., & Zaefarian, G. (2018). Dealing with Endogeneity Bias: The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) for Panel Data. Industrial Marketing Management, 71:69-78 DOI:10.1016/j.indmarman.2017.11.010.

Urdal, H. (2005). People vs. Malthus: Population pressure, environmental degradation, and armed conflict revisited. Journal of Peace Research, 42(4), 417-434 https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343305054089.

Wooldridge, J. (2015). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. Cengage Learning, 2015.

Yang, A. J., Trumbull, W. N., Yang, C., & Huang, B.-N. (2011). On the relationship between military expenditure, threat, and economic growth: A nonlinear approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 22(4):449-457 DOI:10.1080/10242694.2010.497723.

Previous
article in this issue

Next
article in this issue