The Sub-Saharan African economic burden of violent armed conflict

Michael Ogbe

doi:10.24294/jipd8113

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The Sub-Saharan African economic burden of violent armed conflict

Michael Ogbe

Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development 2025, 9(4), 8113; https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd8113

Submitted：21 Jul 2024

Accepted：21 Aug 2024

Published：24 Nov 2025

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Abstract

This research examines data from 1989 to 2022 across 48 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using a novel panel data regression approach to uncover how conflict undermines economic stability. The study identifies the destruction of infrastructure, disruption of human capital development, and deterrence of investment as primary channels through which conflict negatively impacts economies. These findings support the hypothesis that armed conflict severely hampers economic performance in SSA, highlighting the urgency for effective conflict resolution strategies and robust institutional frameworks. The negative impacts extend beyond immediate losses, altering income growth trajectories and perpetuating poverty long after hostilities cease. Regional spillover effects emphasize the interconnectedness of SSA economies, where conflict in one country affects its neighbors. The research provides innovative insights by disaggregating impact pathways and employing a robust methodology, revealing the complexity of conflict's economic consequences. It underscores the need for comprehensive policy interventions to foster resilience and sustainable development in conflict-prone regions. While there is evidence of potential post-conflict growth, the overall net effect of armed conflict remains profoundly negative, diminishing economic prospects. Future research should focus on strengthening long-term resilience mechanisms and policy measures to enhance the peace dividend. Addressing the root causes of conflict and investing in peace-building efforts are essential for transforming SSA's economic landscape and ensuring sustainable growth and development.

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References

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