The results revealed that land use and forest cover changes were influenced by various factors, including ethnicity, educational attainment, household size, distance, and forest management. Forest management emerged as a key factor in protecting forests and minimizing deforestation and degradation. Additionally, distance and ethnicity significantly impacted land use and forest cover change in Phongsaly Province. These factors should be prioritized and strengthened within local communities, particularly in areas experiencing high rates of deforestation and forest degradation. Changes in land use and forest cover have had a significant impact on carbon storage and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Phongsaly Province, reducing the ecosystem’s capacity for carbon sequestration and diminishing its ability to absorb carbon dioxide. The primary driver of GHG emissions was the conversion of forested areas into agricultural land, particularly for upland crops. Conversely, a positive trend has been observed with the restoration of agricultural land back into forested areas, contributing to an increase in carbon sinks.