This paper presents a brief review of risk studies in Geography since the beginning of the 20th century, from approaches focused on physical-natural components or social aspects, to perspectives that incorporate a systemic approach seeking to understand and explain risk issues at a spatial level. The systemic approach considers principles of interaction between multiple variables and a dynamic organization of processes, as part of a new formulation of the scientific vision of the world. From this perspective, the Complex Systems Theory (CST) is presented as the appropriate conceptual-analytical framework for risk studies in Geography. Finally, the analysis and geographic information integration capabilities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based on spatial analysis are explained, which position it as a fundamental conceptual and methodological tool in risk analysis from a systemic approach.

Fire hazard is often mapped as a static conditional probability of fire characteristics’ occurrence. We developed a dynamic product for operational risk management to forecast the probability of occurrence of fire radiative power in the locally possible near-maximum fire intensity range. We applied standard machine learning techniques to remotely sensed data. We used a block maxima approach to sample the most extreme fire radiative power (FRP) MODIS retrievals in free-burning fuels for each fire season between 2001 and 2020 and associated weather, fuel, and topography features in northwestern south America. We used the random forest algorithm for both classification and regression, implementing the backward stepwise repression procedure. We solved the classification problem predicting the probability of occurrence of near-maximum wildfire intensity with 75% recall out-of-sample in ten annual test sets running time series cross validation, and 77% recall and 85% ROC-AUC out-of-sample in a twenty-fold cross-validation to gauge a realistic expectation of model performance in production. We solved the regression problem predicting FRP with 86% r² in-sample, but out-of-sample performance was unsatisfactory. Our model predicts well fatal and near-fatal incidents reported in Peru and Colombia out-of-sample in mountainous areas and unimodal fire regimes, the signal decays in bimodal fire regimes.

The construction of gas plants often experiences delays caused by various factors, which can lead to significant financial and operational losses. This research aims to develop an accurate risk model to improve the schedule performance of gas plant projects. The model uses Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation methods to identify and measure the risks that most significantly impact project schedule performance. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify the risk variables that may cause delays. The risk model, pre-simulation modeling, result analysis, and expert validation were all developed using a Focused Group Discussion (FGD). Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA) software was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The simulation output provides information on probability distribution, histograms, descriptive statistics, sensitivity analysis, and graphical results that aid in better understanding and decision-making regarding project risks. The research results show that the simulated project completion timeline after mitigation suggested an acceleration of 61–65 days compared to the findings of the baseline simulation. This demonstrates that activity-based mitigation has a major influence on improving schedule performance. This research makes a significant contribution to addressing project delay issues by introducing an innovative and effective risk model. The model empowers project teams to proactively identify, measure, and mitigate risks, thereby improving project schedule performance and delivering more successful projects.

The goal of this work was to create and assess machine-learning models for estimating the risk of budget overruns in developed projects. Finding the best model for risk forecasting required evaluating the performance of several models. Using a dataset of 177 projects took into account variables like environmental risks employee skill level safety incidents and project complexity. In our experiments, we analyzed the application of different machine learning models to analyze the risk for the management decision policies of developed organizations. The performance of the chosen model Neural Network (MLP) was improved after applying the tuning process which increased the Test R² from −0.37686 before tuning to 0.195637 after tuning. The Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, and Random Forest (Tuned) models did not improve, as seen when Test R² is compared to the experiments. No changes in Test R²’s were observed on GBM and XGBoost, which retained same Test R² across different tuning attempts. Stacking Regressor was used only during the hyperparameter tuning phase and brought a Test R² of 0. 022219.Decision Tree was again the worst model among all throughout the experiments, with no signs of improvement in its Test R²; it was −1.4669 for Decision Tree in all experiments arranged on the basis of Gender. These results indicate that although, models such as the Neural Network (MLP) sees improvements due to hyperparameter tuning, there are minimal improvements for most models. This works does highlight some of the weaknesses in specific types of models, as well as identifies areas where additional work can be expected to deliver incremental benefits to the structured applied process of risk assessment in organizational policies.

The design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation is crucial for sustainable development in mountain areas. The assessment of the dynamic evolution of flood risk is the pillar of any subsequent planning process that is targeted at a reduction of the expected adverse consequences of the hazard impact. This study focuses on riverbed cities, aiming to analyze flood occurrences and their influencing factors. Through an extensive literature review, five key criteria commonly associated with flood events were identified: slope height, distance from rivers, topographic index, and runoff height. Utilizing the network analysis process within Super Decision software, these factors were weighted, and a final flood risk map was generated using the simple weighted sum method. 75% of the data was used for training, and 25% of it was used for testing. Additionally, vegetation changes were assessed using Landsat imagery from 2000 and 2022 and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The focus of this research is Qirokarzin city as a case study of riverbed cities, situated in Fars province, with Qir city serving as its central hub. Key rivers in Qirokarzin city include the Qara Aghaj River, traversing the plain from north to south; the primary Mubarak Abad River, originating from the east; and the Dutulghaz River, which enters the eastern part of the plain from the southwest of Qir, contributing to plain nourishment during flood events. The innovation of this paper is that along with the objective to produce a reliable delineation of hazard zones, a functional distinction between the loading and the response system (LS and RS, respectively) is made. Results indicate the topographic index as the most influential criterion, delineating Qirokarzin city into five flood risk zones: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Notably, a substantial portion of Qirokarzin city (1849.8 square kilometers, 8.54% of the area) falls within high- to very-high flood risk zones. Weighting analysis reveals that the topographic humidity index and runoff height are the most influential criteria, with weights of 0.27 and 0.229, respectively. Conversely, the height criterion carries the least weight at 0.122. Notably, 46.7% of the study area exhibits high flood intensity, potentially attributed to variations in elevation and runoff height. Flood potential findings show that the middle class covers 32.3%, indicating moderate flood risk due to changes in elevation and runoff height. The low-level risk is observed sporadically from the east to the west of the study area, comprising 12.4%. Analysis of vegetation changes revealed a significant decline in forest and pasture cover despite agricultural and horticultural development, exacerbating flood susceptibility.