The construction of gas plants often experiences delays caused by various factors, which can lead to significant financial and operational losses. This research aims to develop an accurate risk model to improve the schedule performance of gas plant projects. The model uses Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation methods to identify and measure the risks that most significantly impact project schedule performance. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify the risk variables that may cause delays. The risk model, pre-simulation modeling, result analysis, and expert validation were all developed using a Focused Group Discussion (FGD). Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA) software was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The simulation output provides information on probability distribution, histograms, descriptive statistics, sensitivity analysis, and graphical results that aid in better understanding and decision-making regarding project risks. The research results show that the simulated project completion timeline after mitigation suggested an acceleration of 61–65 days compared to the findings of the baseline simulation. This demonstrates that activity-based mitigation has a major influence on improving schedule performance. This research makes a significant contribution to addressing project delay issues by introducing an innovative and effective risk model. The model empowers project teams to proactively identify, measure, and mitigate risks, thereby improving project schedule performance and delivering more successful projects.
This research analyzes disaster risk financing within the framework of the disaster management policy in Indonesia as the implementation of the Disaster Management Law, Number 24 of 2007, by examining recent issues, challenges, and opportunities in disaster financing. Utilizing a qualitative approach, the research systematically reviews various studies, reports, and existing regulations and policies to understand the current landscape comprehensively. Recent developments in disaster risk financing in Indonesia highlight the need for a nuanced exploration of the existing policy framework. Fiscal constraints, evolving risk landscapes, and the increasing frequency of disasters underscore the urgency of effective disaster risk financing strategies. Through a qualitative examination, this study identifies challenges while illuminating opportunities for innovation and improvement within the current policy framework. The contribution of this research extends to both theoretical and practical levels. Theoretically, it enriches the academic discourse on disaster risk financing by offering a nuanced understanding of the complexities involved. On a practical level, the findings derived from the examination provide actionable recommendations for policymakers and practitioners engaged in disaster management in Indonesia. The insights aim to inform the refinement of disaster management policies and practices, fostering resilience and adaptability in the face of evolving disaster scenarios.
Family violence is the act that causes harm, suffering, or death to members of the family group, especially if they are in a situation of vulnerability due to characteristics associated to age or physical condition. Objective: The social characteristics of aggressors were associate in the risk level of victims of family violence in the city of Arequipa, Peru. Method: The study was descriptive, quantitative, and non-experimental. A total of 205 randomly selected judicial files of aggressors reported for domestic violence were evaluated. The data were secondary, and the chi-square test (association of categorical variables) was used for statistical analysis. Results: A moderate risk level (31.2%) was found, with a tendency to be severe and very severe (49.5%). Likewise, the most observed types of violence are physical and psychological violence (89.3%) and sexual abuse (10.7%). The female aggressor exerts mild violence, while the male aggressor exerts moderate to extreme severe violence, causing more harm to the victim. The profile of the aggressor with low or high education, with high or low incomes, and who occupies a house or only one room can be associated the level of violence that occurs. Conclusion: Men are more likely to attack women, and similarly, female aggressors tend to target men more frequently. Moreover, men exhibit a higher tendency to attack their partners, including wives, cohabitants, and ex-partners, whereas women tend to target a broader range of family members, including parents, children, grandparents, nephews, cousins, as well as in-laws such, brothers-in-law and other relatives.
The goal of this work was to create and assess machine-learning models for estimating the risk of budget overruns in developed projects. Finding the best model for risk forecasting required evaluating the performance of several models. Using a dataset of 177 projects took into account variables like environmental risks employee skill level safety incidents and project complexity. In our experiments, we analyzed the application of different machine learning models to analyze the risk for the management decision policies of developed organizations. The performance of the chosen model Neural Network (MLP) was improved after applying the tuning process which increased the Test R2 from −0.37686 before tuning to 0.195637 after tuning. The Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, and Random Forest (Tuned) models did not improve, as seen when Test R2 is compared to the experiments. No changes in Test R2’s were observed on GBM and XGBoost, which retained same Test R2 across different tuning attempts. Stacking Regressor was used only during the hyperparameter tuning phase and brought a Test R2 of 0. 022219.Decision Tree was again the worst model among all throughout the experiments, with no signs of improvement in its Test R2; it was −1.4669 for Decision Tree in all experiments arranged on the basis of Gender. These results indicate that although, models such as the Neural Network (MLP) sees improvements due to hyperparameter tuning, there are minimal improvements for most models. This works does highlight some of the weaknesses in specific types of models, as well as identifies areas where additional work can be expected to deliver incremental benefits to the structured applied process of risk assessment in organizational policies.
Integrated risk value response is designed to reduce threats and increase opportunities, especially in terms of running the spun pile method innovation process in accordance with the ISO 56002:2019 standard. Implementing innovation can reduce risks and increase the competitiveness of the company. The method of making or producing spun piles is the research area examined in this study. Questionnaires were distributed to workers in precast concrete companies and most of them were involved in each spun pile production line in the company in order to identify the risk factors that existed in the production line for the spun pile manufacturing method. 30 respondents were workers from organizations in the positions of Director, Manager and Staff. The risk values and impacts are mapped for each dimension to the activity details and it is found that there are 5 high risks as dominant ones, mainly risks with codes R41, R10, R4, R37, and R36. Based on a survey, the highest risk of 30% was found in the stressing & spinning dimension, which is recommended for the innovation process. Innovation is conducted with 5 innovation processes, mainly identifying opportunities, creating concepts, validating concepts, developing solutions, and deploying solutions. Recommendations for improvements are made with preventive and corrective actions that must be taken from every aspect of the spun pile production method activities. Innovation recommendations are also proposed to monitor production activities in real-time utilizing existing information and communication technology. Handling of spun pile waste material must also be implemented with certain methods and produce products that add value for the company. Ultimately, to increase the company’s competitiveness by increasing assets, it is recommended to increase the company’s intangible assets. The company’s intangible assets encompass IPR ownership in the form of Patents and Copyrights.
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