War-induced energy system collapse in Tigray: Quantifying infrastructure damage, economic losses, and environmental degradation in Tigray

Solomon Teklemichael Bahta ,Mulualem G. Gebreslassie ,Amanuel Amare Gebrekidan ,Petros Gebray Enday

doi:10.24294/jipd11896

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War-induced energy system collapse in Tigray: Quantifying infrastructure damage, economic losses, and environmental degradation in Tigray

Solomon Teklemichael Bahta

Mulualem G. Gebreslassie

Amanuel Amare Gebrekidan

Petros Gebray Enday

Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development 2026, 10(1), 11896; https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd11896

Submitted：22 Sept 2025

Accepted：03 Apr 2026

Published：21 Apr 2026

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Abstract

Armed conflicts increasingly target energy infrastructure, yet empirical evidence from African settings remains limited. The Tigray War (2020–2022) caused one of the most severe energysystem collapses in recent history, triggering a twoyear blackout and widespread socioeconomic disruption. This study quantifies the impacts using 1,699 fieldverified assetlevel observations from Ethiopian Electric Power and Ethiopian Electric Utility, supported by secondary data on electricity sales, project delays, and landuse change. The analysis integrates engineeringbased damage assessment, economic loss estimation, and independently validated environmental indicators, an approach not previously applied in African conflict research. Results show US$51.4 million in physical destruction, US$587.9 million in economic losses, 140.8 km of damaged 230 kV lines, 38 collapsed towers, 237 destroyed transformers, and approximately 930 km² of vegetation loss linked to a 628.7% rise in fuelwood extraction. These findings highlight the need for resilient grid reconstruction, decentralized renewables, and integrated environmental restoration in postconflict recovery.

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References

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